Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 73

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

(12:39) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to NE 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 27-M.Bryant to NE 39 for 15 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.19 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model