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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 22

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 9-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.65 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model