4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 54

New York Jets 6 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 5-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to NE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 27-M.Bryant to NE 19 for 1 yard (19-I.Charles).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.86 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model