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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 15

New York Jets 6 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.16 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model