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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 72

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to NYJ 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 45 for 10 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.25 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model