Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 74

New York Jets 6 – New England Patriots 3

(8:54) 5-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to NE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model