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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 54

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.19 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model