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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 12

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 37-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.39 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model