Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 59

New York Jets 6 – New England Patriots 3

(3:08) 5-T.Morstead punts 27 yards to NE 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.90 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model