Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- CLE defense: -0.150 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- HOU offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- QB edge to HOU: Case Keenum (HOU) -0.061 vs Joe Flacco (CLE) -0.117 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
CLE
HOU
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:23 TD CLE (13:23) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 34-J.Ford. 34-J.Ford right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – HOU 0
- Q2 12:16 TD CLE (12:16) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-37-D.Ross, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. CLE 13 – HOU 0
- Q2 12:04 TD HOU 7-D.Hopkins kicks 63 yards from CLE 35 to HOU 2. 31-D.Pierce for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – HOU 6
- Q2 04:21 TD CLE (4:21) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 85-D.Njoku for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 20 – HOU 7
- Q3 02:39 TD CLE (2:39) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 2-A.Cooper for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 28 – HOU 7
- Q4 12:34 TD CLE (12:34) 68-M.Dunn and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 34 – HOU 7
- Q4 06:11 TD HOU (6:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 12-N.Collins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [37-Da.Bell]. CLE 36 – HOU 13
- Q4 04:15 TD HOU (4:15) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 47-A.Beck for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 36 – HOU 21
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 29%
(9:53) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(6:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to HOU 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 34 for 12 yards (28-M.Ford, 47-C.Hughlett).
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Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(4:47) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 21 for 12 yards (43-N.Hewitt; 30-D.Houston-Carson).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 17 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(1:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to HOU 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 2-R.Woods to HOU 20 for 3 yards (28-M.Ford).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 31%
(13:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(10:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to HOU 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(2:08) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Proche to CLE 19 for 6 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o, 43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on HOU-47-A.Beck, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 19.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 45%
(12:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 30Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 81%
(4:30) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 2-A.Cooper ran ob at HOU 17 for 13 yards [95-D.Barnett].
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Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 25Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 88%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 19-C.Tillman to HOU 18 for 7 yards (21-S.Nelson).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%
(12:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at HOU 2 for 11 yards (24-D.Stingley). PENALTY on HOU-25-D.King, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced at HOU 2.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 60Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58%
(11:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 2-R.Woods.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 29Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 27% p(FG) 83%
(8:11) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson sacked at HOU 39 for -10 yards (55-J.Hughes).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 53Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 31% p(FG) 29%
(5:57) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to CLE 39 for 14 yards (37-Da.Bell). HOU-86-D.Schultz was injured during the play.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 26 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%
(3:49) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 2-A.Cooper ran ob at HOU 13 for 13 yards.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 15 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%
(2:11) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 34-J.Ford to HOU 17 for -2 yards (25-D.King).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 48 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 40%
(:32) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 9-B.Jordan (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).