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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 14 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to HOU 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 36, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model