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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 30

Cleveland Browns 22 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:30) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 2-A.Cooper ran ob at HOU 17 for 13 yards [95-D.Barnett].

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.48 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP