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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 36 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:11) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson sacked at HOU 39 for -10 yards (55-J.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.72 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP