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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 53

Houston Texans 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.43 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model