4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 52

Houston Texans 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.09 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model