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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 28 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 19-C.Tillman to HOU 18 for 7 yards (21-S.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP