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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 60

Houston Texans 7 – Cleveland Browns 36

What Actually Happened

(11:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model