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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 48

Houston Texans 22 – Cleveland Browns 36

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 9-B.Jordan (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.17 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP