4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 53

Houston Texans 15 – Cleveland Browns 36

What Actually Happened

(5:57) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to CLE 39 for 14 yards (37-Da.Bell). HOU-86-D.Schultz was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.70 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP