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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 26

Cleveland Browns 36 – Houston Texans 22

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 2-A.Cooper ran ob at HOU 13 for 13 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.42 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP