Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 7 – Houston Texans 0

(6:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to HOU 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 34 for 12 yards (28-M.Ford, 47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.65 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model