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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Chris Tabor
Sunday 2023-12-17 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 32.0

Win Probability

ATL
59.3%
CAR
40.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Bryce Young (CAR) -0.298 vs Desmond Ridder (ATL) -0.087 EPA/dropback
  • ATL offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • ATL defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22
–
CAR 18
Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ATL

Kaleb McGary T Out Knee
Kentavius Street DT Out Pectoral
Younghoe Koo K Questionable Illness
Lacale London DT Questionable Knee
Drew Dalman C Questionable Ankle
Bud Dupree LB Questionable Back
Nate Landman LB Questionable Knee
Chris Lindstrom G Questionable Ankle
Jake Matthews T Questionable Knee
David Onyemata DT Questionable Ankle

CAR

Hayden Hurst TE Out Concussion
Justin McCray C Out Calf
Ian Thomas TE Out Ankle
Amare Barno LB Questionable Illness
D'Shawn Jamison CB Questionable Illness
Xavier Woods S Questionable Illness
Jammie Robinson S Questionable Finger
Brian Burns LB Questionable Ankle
Sam Franklin S Questionable Illness
Yetur Gross-Matos LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 7
–
CAR 9

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 04:55 TD ATL (4:55) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short middle to 84-C.Patterson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – CAR 0
  • Q2 00:26 FG CAR (:26) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. ATL 7 – CAR 3
  • Q4 13:35 FG CAR (13:35) 4-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. ATL 7 – CAR 6
  • Q4 00:01 FG CAR (:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. ATL 7 – CAR 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 68%

    (9:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left tackle to CAR 35 for -1 yards (97-Y.Gross-Matos, 49-F.Luvu).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 70%

    (6:47) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ATL 33 for no gain (93-C.Campbell).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 16 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:21) 13-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to CAR 37, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:26) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to ATL 4, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:09) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to CAR 35, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:03) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to ATL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 20-D.Alford ran ob at ATL 17 for 1 yard (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CAR 31, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:34) 10-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to ATL 34, Center-44-J.Jansen. 20-D.Alford to ATL 42 for 8 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 46%

    (8:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to CAR 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-I.Smith-Marsette MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 8.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to ATL 37, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 94%

    (:26) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 63%

    (12:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to ATL 30 for 6 yards (34-C.Phillips). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 44%

    (9:04) 13-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-27-R.Grant.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 18 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 31%

    (2:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (13:35) 4-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.