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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 43

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 13-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-27-R.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model