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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left tackle to CAR 35 for -1 yards (97-Y.Gross-Matos, 49-F.Luvu).

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.74 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model