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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 7

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 4-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.15 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP