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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 33

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(6:47) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ATL 33 for no gain (93-C.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.05 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model