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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to CAR 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-I.Smith-Marsette MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP