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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 36

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(12:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to ATL 30 for 6 yards (34-C.Phillips). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model