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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to ATL 37, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.57 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 83, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP