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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 82

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to CAR 35, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.77 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model