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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 15

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(:26) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.53 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model