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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.96 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model