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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 6 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 5, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model