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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2023-12-03 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.0 O/U 33.0

Win Probability

ATL
50.9%
NYJ
49.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.234 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Tim Boyle (NYJ) -0.195 vs Desmond Ridder (ATL) -0.064 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 21
–
NYJ 20
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

ATL

Mike Hughes CB Questionable Hand
Mack Hollins WR Questionable Ankle

NYJ

Aaron Rodgers QB Out Achilles
Breece Hall RB Questionable Hamstring
Wes Schweitzer G Questionable Calf
Kenny Yeboah TE Questionable Hamstring
Israel Abanikanda RB Questionable Illness
Dalvin Cook RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 13
–
NYJ 8

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:40 SAF NYJ (1:40) 7-B.Robinson left end tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (21-A.Davis, 95-Q.Williams). ATL 0 – NYJ 2
  • Q2 10:10 TD ATL (10:10) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 85-M.Pruitt for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NYJ 2
  • Q2 04:00 FG NYJ (4:00) 9-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. ATL 7 – NYJ 5
  • Q2 00:04 FG ATL (:04) 6-Y.Koo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 10 – NYJ 5
  • Q3 10:36 FG NYJ (10:36) 9-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. ATL 10 – NYJ 8
  • Q3 03:41 FG ATL (3:41) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NYJ-92-P.Winfrey was injured during the play. ATL 13 – NYJ 8

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NYJ 15, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (11:00) 5-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to ATL 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-D.Alford to ATL 34 for 13 yards (21-A.Davis).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:50) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NYJ 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 33%

    (2:27) 5-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to ATL 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:06) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ATL 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-D.Alford to ATL 21 for 8 yards (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on ATL-33-T.Flowers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:31) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 44 for 17 yards (59-A.Smith).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 94%

    (6:01) 7-T.Boyle up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (48-B.Dupree; 93-C.Campbell).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (4:00) 9-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:56) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-L.McCullough. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 21 for 4 yards (37-D.Hellams). PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 21.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:24) 5-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to ATL 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-D.Alford to ATL 41 for 10 yards (55-C.Surratt). PENALTY on NYJ-55-C.Surratt, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 41.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 62%

    (13:01) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to ATL 28 for 9 yards (20-D.Alford).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 81%

    (10:36) 9-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (3:41) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NYJ-92-P.Winfrey was injured during the play.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:54) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to ATL 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-D.Alford MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 24. 20-D.Alford ran ob at ATL 29 for 5 yards (55-C.Surratt).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 16 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:21) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NYJ 26, Center-49-L.McCullough. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 42 for 16 yards (59-A.Smith, 40-K.Smith).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:16) 13-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-29-M.Abernathy.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

    (10:53) 5-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to ATL 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:53) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NYJ 44, Center-49-L.McCullough. 82-X.Gipson to ATL 48 for 8 yards (37-D.Hellams, 40-K.Smith).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 31%

    (7:42) 5-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:30) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NYJ 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 24%

    (2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NYJ 7, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short left [48-B.Dupree]. Penalty on NYJ-66-J.Tippmann, Offensive Holding, declined.