Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New York Jets 5

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-L.McCullough. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 21 for 4 yards (37-D.Hellams). PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model