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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 28

New York Jets 5 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 9-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model