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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 24

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New York Jets 8

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NYJ-92-P.Winfrey was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.09 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model