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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 9

New York Jets 2 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 9-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.90 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 9, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model