Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 62

New York Jets 2 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(:06) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ATL 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-D.Alford to ATL 21 for 8 yards (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on ATL-33-T.Flowers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.45 EP
59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model