Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 49

New York Jets 8 – Atlanta Falcons 13

(7:42) 5-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.29 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP

KICK -1.26 EP

31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
69% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model