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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 79

New York Jets 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 5-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to ATL 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-D.Alford to ATL 34 for 13 yards (21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.34 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model