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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NYJ 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model