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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 48

New York Jets 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 5-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to ATL 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.04 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model