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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 86

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Jets 2

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 44 for 17 yards (59-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.53 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model