Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New York Jets 8

(1:21) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NYJ 26, Center-49-L.McCullough. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 42 for 16 yards (59-A.Smith, 40-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.91 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model