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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2023-11-19 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 34.0

Win Probability

PIT
55.0%
CLE
45.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Dorian Thompson-Robinson (CLE) -0.684 vs Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.066 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson in place of Deshaun Watson)
  • CLE defense: -0.227 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Dorian Thompson-Robinson (CLE) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

PIT 19
–
CLE 18
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 37

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

PIT

Montravius Adams DT Out Ankle
Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Hamstring
Keanu Neal S Out Rib
Pat Freiermuth TE Questionable Hamstring

CLE

Marquise Goodwin WR Out Concussion
Juan Thornhill S Out Calf
Michael Dunn G Questionable Calf
Dawand Jones T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 10
–
CLE 13

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:38 TD CLE (4:38) 53-N.Harris and 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 34-J.Ford right guard to PIT 1 for no gain (99-L.Ogunjobi). Cleveland challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 53-N.Harris and 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 34-J.Ford right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – CLE 6
  • Q2 00:09 FG CLE (:09) 7-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. PIT 0 – CLE 10
  • Q3 14:22 TD PIT (14:22) 30-J.Warren right end for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CLE 10
  • Q4 07:44 FG PIT (7:44) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 10 – CLE 10
  • Q4 00:05 FG CLE (:05) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on PIT-90-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, declined. PIT 10 – CLE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 41%

    (10:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-47-C.Hughlett.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:31) 6-P.Harvin punts 43 yards to 50, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:23) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (15:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 65 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 33%

    (11:17) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to PIT 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-C.Austin to PIT 33 for 15 yards (26-R.McLeod).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 43 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (:09) 7-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:39) Direct snap to 88-H.Bryant. 27-K.Hunt left end to CLE 38 for 4 yards (50-E.Roberts).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

    (9:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (8:04) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to CLE 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Proche to CLE 36 for 4 yards (28-M.Killebrew, 93-M.Robinson).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (5:23) 8-K.Pickett left guard to PIT 30 for 1 yard (44-S.Takitaki). PIT-8-K.Pickett was injured during the play. Cleveland challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to CLE 31, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Proche to PIT 48 for 21 yards (87-R.Williams). PIT-17-T.Thompson was injured during the play.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:55) 6-P.Harvin punts 20 yards to PIT 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 28%

    (15:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-C.Austin to PIT 28 for 15 yards (42-T.Fields).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (7:44) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:53) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 25 yards to PIT 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 44%

    (3:35) 6-P.Harvin punts 29 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-C.Austin to PIT 30 for 21 yards (22-G.Delpit; 47-C.Hughlett).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (51-Ni.Herbig).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 93%

    (:05) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on PIT-90-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, declined.