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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to CLE 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Proche to CLE 36 for 4 yards (28-M.Killebrew, 93-M.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.72 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model