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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-C.Austin to PIT 28 for 15 yards (42-T.Fields).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model