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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-C.Austin to PIT 30 for 21 yards (22-G.Delpit; 47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.11 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model