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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 17

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:05) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on PIT-90-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +1.62 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model